Debris mitigation

Satellite deorbit compliance & orbital lifetime calculator

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The 25-year rule is dead. Check a post-mission disposal plan against the FCC 5-year rule, ESA Zero Debris, or the legacy 25-year limit - free, in your browser - and, if it fails, see exactly what it takes to comply.

How this model works & what it omits

King-Hele atmospheric decay integrated from the disposal orbit to reentry, checked against FCC 47 CFR 25.283 / ESA Zero Debris / legacy 25-year limits. First-order screening - confirm marginal verdicts with NASA DAS at the real disposal epoch.

This orbital lifetime calculator is free and runs in your browser - no sign-up, no install. It integrates King-Hele atmospheric decay from the disposal orbit in your post-mission disposal plan down to reentry, and checks the resulting post-mission lifetime against the regime you pick: the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) 5-year rule (47 CFR 25.283), the European Space Agency (ESA) Zero Debris standard, or the legacy 25-year guideline - the three regimes are compared side by side here. When an orbit fails, it sizes both remediations operators actually use - the deployable drag area, and the perigee-lowering disposal Δv, that bring the lifetime exactly to the limit. A first-order screen with a piecewise-exponential atmosphere at three solar-activity tiers; confirm marginal verdicts with NASA's Debris Assessment Software (DAS) at the real disposal epoch.

Every satellite operator now has to prove that whatever is left in orbit at end of mission comes back down promptly. The threshold tightened sharply: the FCC adopted a 5-year rule in 2022 (in force September 2024) for LEO satellites below 2,000 km - replacing the decades-old 25-year guideline - and ESA's Zero Debris standard matches it at under 5 years. Many disposal orbits that were fine under 25 years now fail. This tool tells you whether yours passes, and by how much.

The physics is atmospheric drag. A satellite with mass m, drag coefficient Cd, and cross-section A presents a ballistic coefficient BC = m/(Cd·A); the tool integrates the King-Hele simple-atmosphere decay equation da/dt = −(Cd·A/m)·ρ·√(μ·a) forward from the disposal orbit to the reentry altitude (100 km), using a piecewise-exponential atmospheric density table at three solar-activity tiers. For an elliptical disposal orbit, drag is concentrated at perigee - density is exponential in altitude - so the orbit first circularizes at perigee, then decays; that is why a low perigee is such a cheap way to shorten lifetime.

If the natural lifetime exceeds the limit, the tool solves the two remediation paths operators actually use. Required drag area - the deployable drag-sail area that would bring lifetime to exactly the limit (found by bisection, since lifetime falls monotonically with area). Disposal Δv - the perigee-lowering burn, applied at apogee, that drops the natural lifetime to the limit; from LEO this is usually only tens of m/s, and often cheaper than carrying a sail.

What this tool does not do: it is a first-order screening model, not a certified predictor. Future solar activity (the ~11-year cycle) swings thermospheric density several-fold, so real post-mission lifetime carries roughly 10-50% uncertainty - the same reason regulators accept a screening result but expect a full run of NASA DAS (Debris Assessment Software) at the actual disposal epoch for the filing. It also does not model attitude-driven area variation, geomagnetic-storm density transients, drag-sail deployment reliability, controlled-reentry targeting, or the casualty-risk / demise side of the standard (a separate assessment). A conservative compliance check uses the Low (solar-minimum) atmosphere, which gives the longest - worst-case - lifetime.

pick a disposal scenario, or set your own orbit + regime.

Disposal orbit

the orbit left behind at end of mission.

Spacecraft

ballistic coefficient BC = m / (Cd·A) sets the decay rate.

Regime & atmosphere

which limit to check, and the future-atmosphere assumption.

Compliant - 4.46 yr lifetime vs 5 yr limit (FCC 5-year rule (47 CFR 25.283)).

FCC 5-year rule (47 CFR 25.283)

Compliant

4.46 yr / 5 yr limit

0.5 yr margin

4.46 yr

Post-mission lifetime

75.8

Ballistic coeff (kg/m²)

-

Drag area to comply

-

Disposal Δv to comply

screening only

First-order King-Hele model. Future solar activity swings atmospheric density several-fold, so real lifetime carries roughly 10-50% uncertainty. For a marginal verdict, confirm with NASA DAS (Debris Assessment Software) at the actual disposal epoch before filing. A conservative check uses the Low (solar-min) atmosphere.

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Common questions

How long will a satellite stay in orbit after end of mission?

Altitude dominates, and exponentially - atmospheric density falls off so steeply that 150 km changes the answer by an order of magnitude. The 550 km constellation preset (200 kg, 1.2 m² of drag area) reenters naturally in ~4.5 years, clearing the 5-year rule with about half a year of margin; a similar microsat at 700 km takes ~42 years - an 8× breach of the same limit. Ballistic coefficient (mass over drag area) matters too, but no realistic value rescues a high disposal orbit. The decay physics behind those numbers - and the 550-to-600 km cliff that decides most smallsat missions - is worked through in the FCC 5-year rule and CubeSat orbital decay deep dive.

What is the FCC 5-year rule?

The 2022 order (Report & Order FCC-22-74, in force September 2024) requiring satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) below 2,000 km to deorbit within 5 years of end of mission - replacing the 25-year guideline that stood for decades. ESA's Zero Debris standard sets the same under-5-year bar. The tightening reclassifies many once-fine orbits: the 600 km Earth-observation preset's 10.7-year lifetime passes the legacy 25-year check it was designed against but would fail the 5-year rule outright. Scope, effective dates, and casualty limits for all three regimes are compared in the FCC 5-year rule vs ESA Zero Debris vs 25-year guideline reference.

Drag sail or disposal burn - which fixes a failing orbit?

The tool sizes both so you can compare. For the failing 700 km microsat preset it takes either ~5.1 m² of deployed drag area (against the spacecraft's own 0.6 m²) or a ~59 m/s perigee-lowering burn at apogee. From LEO the burn is usually the cheaper option - tens of m/s is a small propellant fraction, and a sail adds deployment risk and tumbling-attitude uncertainty. Turn the Δv into propellant mass with the propulsion sizing tool.

Which solar-activity setting should I use?

For a compliance check, Low (solar minimum): the cool, contracted thermosphere gives the least drag and therefore the longest - worst-case - lifetime. The ~11-year solar cycle swings upper-atmosphere density several-fold, which is why any lifetime prediction carries roughly 10–50% uncertainty and why regulators accept a screening result but expect a NASA DAS run at the actual disposal epoch for the filing itself.

Is orbital lifetime the whole debris-compliance story?

No - it is one half. The standards also cap the ground-casualty risk from whatever survives the reentry you just scheduled, which is a separate materials-and-demise analysis: screen it with the reentry casualty risk tool. The compliance report tool composes both screens - lifetime and casualty risk - into a single orbital-debris assessment summary.

References

  • FCC (2022). Mitigation of Orbital Debris in the New Space Age, Report & Order FCC-22-74 - the "5-year rule" (47 CFR 25.283).
  • ESA (2023). Zero Debris Approach and ESSB-ST-U-007, Space Debris Mitigation Requirements (<5-year LEO clearance).
  • NASA-STD-8719.14C (2021). Process for Limiting Orbital Debris.
  • IADC-02-01 (rev. 2007). IADC Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines (the legacy 25-year guideline).
  • King-Hele, D. (1987). Satellite Orbits in an Atmosphere: Theory and Applications. Blackie.
  • Picone, J. M., et al. (2002). NRLMSISE-00 empirical model of the atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res. 107(A12).
  • NASA ODPO. Debris Assessment Software (DAS) - the reference tool for orbital-lifetime compliance.
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